INDEPENDENT INVESTMENT RESEARCH

HYPOTHESIS RESEARCH is a provider of investment research, sponsored research and analytical services to investment management companies, family offices and sell-side organisations.

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REPORTS

18 December 2020

Globaltruck - A digital transformation to deliver growth

Globaltruck (MOEX: GTRK) updated its strategy to include a focus on digitalisation that will add an asset-light business to its asset-based model. Over the next four years (2020-2024), management expects the new business to help lift overall company revenue growth, as well as improve operating efficiency.

10 November 2020

Uber - 3Q20 results review

Uber reports a QoQ improvement in its Mobility and Delivery businesses in 3Q 2020. The company’s MAPCs increased to 78mn in 3Q20 compared to 55mn in 2Q20 and 103mn in 3Q19. The number of trips increased to 1,150mn in 3Q20 vs 737mn in 2Q20 and 1,770mna year ago. Gross bookings increased by 44% QoQ to $14,745mn, a 10% YoY decline (8% decline in constant currency). We review our forecasts based on 3Q20 results.

2 December 2020

Nutrien - company update

Nutrien reported phosphate segment EBITDA loss in 3Q20 but market prospects are brighter for 4Q20. The company reported a 7% YoY decline in phosphate sales to $292mn and EBITDA loss of $723mn due to $823mn non-cash impairments associated with phosphate assets in 3Q20. We review our valuation and forecasts for the company based on 3Q20 financials.

6 November 2020

Moscow Exchange - 3Q20 results review

Moscow Exchange (MOEX) reports a strong fee income for 9M20. The company’s fee and commission (F&C) income grew 30% YoY to RUB8,321mn in 3Q20. The operating income was up 6% YoY despite declining Net Interest Income (NII) following interest rates cut. Net profit increased by 2.7% YoY to RUB5,598.6mn in 3Q20. F&C reached RUB24,221.7mn in 9M20, up 27% YoY while Interest and other finance income were up 9% YoY to RUB11,398.8mn in 9M20. We update our model based on 3Q20 figures.

13 November 2020

Lyft - 3Q20 results review

Lyft releases 3Q20 financial results reflecting quarterly improvement in the number of riders and revenue. Lyft reported revenue of $499.7mn, up 47% QoQ from $339.3mn in 2Q20, and compared to $955.6mn in 3Q19. We revise our forecasts due to slower ride recovery. Lyft’s intention to reach EBITDA profitability and provide profitable growth beyond 2021 might be achievable once the company follows the cost control measures implemented during the pandemic.

21 October 2020

Beluga Group - EGM approves interim dividends

BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) reports the results of the EGM. At the EGM, held on 16 October 2020, BELUGA Group shareholders approved the payment of interim dividends for 1H2020 in the amount of RUB19 per share. The total payment will amount to RUB124.2mn based on an outstanding number of shares of 12,416,947 net of a quasi-treasury stake of 3,383,053 shares. We update our forecasts and EPS projections based on the 9M2020 operating results and new dividend policy.

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