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HYPOTHESIS RESEARCH is a provider of investment research, customized research and analytical services to investment management companies, family offices and sell-side firms.

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Hypothesis Research Ltd is a partner of Soft Alpha project led by Rezatec Ltd and supported by the European Space Agency (ESA). The Soft Alpha project provides predictive analysis of soft commodity crop performance and monitoring tools for environmental sustainability and supply chain analysis.  

Polkadot: tips for (traditional) investors - our blog is published on Medium.

REPORTS

INVESTMENT RESEARCH

ANALYTICAL OUTSOURCING

BUSINESS ANALYTICS

Глобалтрак: Позитивная динамика показателей в 3кв. 2019г.

December 11, 2019

Глобалтрак (MOEX: GTRK) объявил результаты за 9 месяцев 2019г. Компания раскрыла квартальные показатели впервые, ранее публикуя только полугодовые показатели. Русская версия отчета доступна здесь.

Globaltruck: Stronger financial performance in 3Q19

December 10, 2019

Globaltruck (MOEX: GTRK) announces 9M2019 results. The company has disclosed quarterly figures for the first time in a change from its previous half-yearly model. The relatively weak economic environment resulted in slower growth in freight rates, but the bigger fleet and stable load run growth allowed the company to report revenue of RUB6,921mn and EBITDA of RUB994mn for January-September 2019. Net income came in at RUB117.6mn for 9M19 compared to a net loss of RUB2.3mn in 1H19.

Globaltruck: Share buyback program launch

November 15, 2019

Globaltruck (MOEX: GTRK) announces share buyback program. The group will buy up to 5% of the shares of Globaltruck Management. The total number of shares issued is 58,462,120, therefore 5% represents 2,923,106 shares. The price of the buyback will not exceed RUB132 per share - the price set during the group’s IPO.

Uber Technologies and Lyft 3Q19 results: growing rationality on the market

November 11, 2019

Uber and Lyft posted 3Q19 results, both stating growing rationality on the market. Uber’s top line came in line with our expectations while operating expenses were above forecasts. Lyft results were above expectations.

Moscow Exchange - Strategy 2024: marketplace in complex macro

November 05, 2019

Moscow Exchange presented its Strategy 2024. Over the past five years, MOEX has successfully executed its strategy focused on infrastructure unification, product range diversification, processes optimization, and higher penetration of the exchange services. As a result, the Moscow Exchange Group represents an integrated platform for trading equity, bonds, derivatives, Repo, FX, commodities, with incorporated Clearing and Depository connected to Euroclear/Clearstream. The platform offers a wide range of asset classes, in line with the largest benchmarks globally. The MOEX trading volume reached RUB861trln in 2018 and was growing with 15% p.a. CAGR in 2012-2018.

PhosAgro - Strategy: new targets for growth and sustainability

November 04, 2019

PhosAgro announced its 2025 production targets. The company said its 2020 strategy targets were achieved ahead of schedule. The output of phosphate rock to reach 10.5mt and fertilizer production to hit 9.5mt in 2019, up 36% and 61% respectively from 2013 levels. The company has completed the construction of ammonia and sulphuric acid units, reducing feedstock purchases from third parties, and improving self-sufficiency. PhosAgro added 500kt of urea and 760kt of ammonia capacity to its Cherepovetsk facilities, while the phosphate rock capacity reached 9mt per annum at Kirovsk mining facility. Overall, capex spent on three major expansion projects in Cherepovets, Kirovsk and Balakovo reached $1.33bn, with the expected EBITDA from these projects to reach $450mn.

Fertiliser sector outlook - September 2019

October 01, 2019

•The August and September soft commodities price performance was driven by USDA reports. Crop prices declined on August USDA WASDE reports; however, the September USDA report came supportive for soft commodities and fertiliser stock prices. Several producers announced about production cuts to reduce inventories.

Globaltruck: Reliable road solutions

September 30, 2019

We initiate coverage of Russian transportation company Globaltruck (MOEX: GTRK). The company is engaged in road cargo transportation in Russia and Europe. Its fleet consists of 1,359 trucks and 1,502 trailers. The average age of the fleet is 2.7 years. The company provides services to blue chip Russian and international retailers, consumer companies, industrial holdings, and e-commerce and logistics operators.

Languages: English, Russian (для получения русской версии - напишите нам ma@hypothesisresearch.co.uk)

The Mosaic Company - 2Q19 results review

August 06, 2019

The Mosaic Company posted weak 2Q19 financials following the worst spring planting season in the US. The company said that unprecedented wet weather in the Midwest United States has negatively impacted sales volumes and phosphate margins, however higher grain prices provide opportunities in fall 2019 and beyond. The adverse weather in the US and higher imports volumes from China negatively affected the phosphate market, while potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes in Brazil continue to perform well, according to Mosaic.

New mobility: Uber and Lyft - Where to?

June 17, 2019

Uber and Lyft have become public, which attracted some attention to their business model. Both companies represent the new sharing economy, which is disrupting traditional personal and public transportation markets and offering an economically viable service for customers.

The full version of the report is available on https://www.hypothesisresearch.co/

United Wagon Company: FY2018 financial results review

May 15, 2019

UWC reported FY2018 revenue above expectations, but weaker pre-tax profit due to non-cash reserves and asset impairment. The company had stable production in FY18 with railcar output up 3% YoY to 19,668 units. The share of specialized cars in the product mix increased, with hopper output up 108% YoY to 5,039, tank car output up 34% YoY to 999 cars, and other specialized cars up 98% YoY to 2,578 units in FY18. The output of gondola cars fell 24% YoY to 11,052 cars.

Polymetal International: Flat production, better efficiency

March 20, 2019

Polymetal International (LSE: POLY) reported FY18 results. The company produced 1,562koz of GE in FY18, up 9% YoY . Major contributors to the growth were Albazino, Varvara, Svetloye and Kyzyl in 2018  The company reported $1,882mn revenue (up 4% YoY) and $780mn adjusted EBITDA (up 5% YoY) in FY18. Total cash costs (TCC) of Polymetal were down 1% YoY to $649/GE oz, while AISC were down 4% YoY to $861/GE oz. Overall, results came in line with expectations and slightly above the company’s previous guidance.

Distributed Ledger Technology platforms review

October 01, 2018

A Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) platform creates an ecosystem and sets limits for distributed applications built on the top of it. The platform parameters, such as governance model, economic characteristics and technologies used, are restraining factors for use cases and “mass-adoption” of the blockchain by large corporations. We have analyzed a few blockchain platforms to compare their parameters such as the governance system, security, protocol, economics, scalability options, and technology, along with others.

United Wagon Company: Rolling through the cycle. Coverage initiation

August 21, 2018

We initiate coverage of United Wagon Company (UWC), a Russian producer of the modern rolling stock. The combination of new capacities and innovative products make the company a leader in the railcar market in Russia. UWC offers a wide range of railcars with 25-tf axle load and plans to launch 27-tf bogie railcars, which provide better economics, a longer fleet life, and cheaper servicing for fleet operators.

Crypto economy: Introduction

January 26, 2018

The cryptocurrency market is in a transition from crypto-enthusiasts to a diverse universe of individuals, institutional investors, corporates, authorities and start-up technology projects, creating a significant networking effect for the global implementation of the blockchain technology. While the cryptocurrency market remains inefficient, affected by regulatory and operational challenges, the potential of the technology promises new ways for businesses and individuals to operate, communicate, and invest.

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COVERAGE UNIVERSE

Materials, Resources

In the Materials sectors, we follow diversified metals, gold, and other M&M companies. We also look at Oil&Gas universe and Diversified Chemicals. 

 

 

 

Fertilisers

Fertiliser universe coverage includes potash, phosphate and nitrogen producers in main producing countries (the USA, Canada and CIS). We follow trends in the universe with our monthly product.

Financials

We follow developments in the Financials sector, including new technologies implementation.

 

 

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