HYPOTHESIS RESEARCH is a provider of investment research, sponsored research and analytical services to investment management companies, family offices and sell-side organisations.

Please send us a request if you need help or more information.


18 January 2022

BELUGA Group - FY2021 Operating results

BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) releases full year 2021 total sales of 17.5mn 9L cases, up 0.6% YoY, in line with our expectations. The sales of own brands in FY2021 went down by 2.6% YoY to 14.6mn 9L cases (vs our forecast of 14.9mn 9L cases). However, this decline was compensated by an increase of import brands sales by 20.7% YoY to 2.9mn 9L cases (we had forecast 2.6mn 9L cases). Export sales increased by 77.3% YoY to 632k 9L cases.

10 November 2021

UBER Technologies - 3Q2021 results coming with a positive EBITDA

Uber reports a positive EBITDA in 3Q21. Uber’s Gross Bookings reached $23.1bn in 3Q21, up 57% YoY and 53% YoY on a constant currency basis. Uber sees a further 33% growth of aggregate gross bookings in October 2021 over October 2019 after the reopening in New York, London, Paris, and Sydney. Mobility Gross bookings were $9.9bn in 3Q (+67% YoY), Delivery bookings $12.8bn (+50%), and Freight bookings grew to $0.4bn, up 39% YoY.

25 мая 2021

Группа БЕЛУГА - Новая стратегия роста, фокус на ритейл

Группа БЕЛУГА объявила стратегию развития на 2021-24гг. Показав высокие операционные показатели за 2020г., Группа определила стратегически важные элементы развития бизнеса для удвоения выручки к 2024г. Достижение результатов выше среднерыночных показало важность собственной дистрибуции и ритейла. Сеть магазинов ВинЛаб показала рост выручки на 45.7% г/г в 2020г. и стала ключевым элементом для онлайн платформы продаж. Онлайн продажи с получением заказов в магазинах (Click & collect) являются основным законным способом онлайн продаж алкогольных напитков в России.

16 марта 2021

Группа БЕЛУГА - Рост дивидендов поддержан высокой прибылью

Группа БЕЛУГА (MOEX: BELU) отчиталась о сильных финансовых результатах за 2020 г. Выручка компании выросла на 23% до 63.3 млрд руб. в 2020г., на фоне роста объемов продаж на 11% г/г и расширения операций ритейла. Объемы продаж выросли на 10.7% г/г в 2020г. до 17.37млн 9-литровых кейсов. EBITDA увеличилась на 42% г/г до 9.2 млрд руб. и чистая прибыль выросла на 82% г/г до 2.8 млрд руб.

25 February 2021

Lyft - FY2020 results review

Lyft reports $570mn revenue, a $70m QoQ improvement in 4Q20. Lyft’s adjusted EBITDA loss was $150m in 4Q20 compared to $240m loss in 3Q20 and $131m loss in 4Q19. The number of active riders reached 12.6mn in 4Q20 compared to 12.5mn in 3Q20, below our expectations of 13.3mn. However, the revenue per active rider improved from $39.9 in 3Q20 to $45.4 in 4Q20. The contribution margin was 55.5% in 4Q compared to 49.8% in 3Q20. The company reduced driver acquisition and engagement spend.

26 January 2021

BELUGA Group - Strong FY2020 operating results amidst pandemic

BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) reports strong operating results for FY2020. The company’s sales volumes increased by 10.7% YoY in FY2020 to 17.37mn 9L cases compared to our forecast of 16.59mn. The own product sales grew by 6.9% YoY to 14.982mn 9L cases and sales of imported brands increased by 42.1% YoY to 2.387mn 9L cases. Sales of both own and imported brands exceeded our estimates.

2 December 2020

Nutrien - company update

Nutrien reported phosphate segment EBITDA loss in 3Q20 but market prospects are brighter for 4Q20. The company reported a 7% YoY decline in phosphate sales to $292mn and EBITDA loss of $723mn due to $823mn non-cash impairments associated with phosphate assets in 3Q20. We review our valuation and forecasts for the company based on 3Q20 financials.

6 November 2020

Moscow Exchange - 3Q20 results review

Moscow Exchange (MOEX) reports a strong fee income for 9M20. The company’s fee and commission (F&C) income grew 30% YoY to RUB8,321mn in 3Q20. The operating income was up 6% YoY despite declining Net Interest Income (NII) following interest rates cut. Net profit increased by 2.7% YoY to RUB5,598.6mn in 3Q20. F&C reached RUB24,221.7mn in 9M20, up 27% YoY while Interest and other finance income were up 9% YoY to RUB11,398.8mn in 9M20. We update our model based on 3Q20 figures.

23 November 2021

Lyft - 3Q21: record driver activation and margin

Lyft reports $864mn revenue in 3Q21, up 73% YoY and a record contribution margin of 59.4%. The number of active drivers increased by 11% QoQ and 51% YoY to 18.9mn. The Revenue per active rider also improved from $39.9 in 3Q20 to $45.6 in 3Q21. Lyft adjusted EBITDA was $67.3mn in 3Q21 compared to $23.8mn in 2Q21 and an adj EBITDA loss of $239.7mn a year ago. We update our forecasts and price target.

5 November 2021

Mosaic - 3Q21: strong performance despite production cuts

The Mosaic Company reports a 44% YoY and 22% QoQ net revenue increase and $372mn net earnings for 3Q21 compared to a net loss of $6mn in 3Q20 and net profit of $437mn in 2Q21. The company’s adjusted EBITDA reached $969mn in 3Q21, up 121% YoY and 17% QoQ. The strongest in a decade fertiliser price growth helped the company to achieve a strong performance during a quarter despite production cuts and extra repair costs.

25 May 2021

BELUGA Group - New growth strategy, focus on Retail

BELUGA Group announces its strategy for 2021-24. Following a strong operating performance in 2020, the Group set strategically important business development elements in order to double its revenue by 2024. Better-than-market performance by the Group demonstrated the importance of having its own distribution, including within the Retail operations. The changing preference of customers in favour of brown spirits and wine over the traditional choice of vodka supported the performance of BELUGA’s well-diversified portfolio, while online purchases during the lockdown contributed to the Group’s Retail margin and revenue growth.

15 March 2021

BELUGA Group - Strong EPS growth drives dividend payout

BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) reports strong financial results for FY2020. The company’s revenue after VAT and excise duties grew 23% YoY to RUB63.3bn in АН2020, driven by 11% YoY volume growth and stronger retail operations. Its sales volumes increased by 10.7% YoY in FY2020 to 17.37mn 9L cases. EBITDA increased to RUB9.2bn, up 42% YoY, and net profit increased 82% YoY to RUB2.8bn.

17 February 2021

Uber Technologies - FY2020 results review

Uber reports a gradual 16.3% QoQ improvement in Gross Bookings in 4Q 2020. Uber’s Gross Bookings reached $58bn in FY2020, down 11% YoY. The performance was driven by the Delivery business, which reported an increase in Gross Bookings by 130% YoY to $10bn in 4Q20 and by 109% to $30bn in FY20. The company has 3.5mn drivers and increased the number of merchants on its platform from 450k in 1Q20 to 675k. Membership scaled up to 5mn members with Uber Pass, Eats Pass, and Postmates Unlimited, providing Uber’s businesses a better frequency of usage.

18 декабря 2020 (Russian version)

Глобалтрак - Цифровая трансформация для роста

Глобалтрак (MOEX: GTRK) обновил стратегию, усилив фокус на цифровизации и росте доли экспедиционного бизнеса в выручке. Компания объявила о создании комитета по стратегии цифровизации бизнеса и учреждении компании «ГТ ИТ» – разработчика электронной платформы для развития приложений и операций клиентов, экспедиторов, водителей и партнеров.

13 November 2020

Lyft - 3Q20 results review

Lyft releases 3Q20 financial results reflecting quarterly improvement in the number of riders and revenue. Lyft reported revenue of $499.7mn, up 47% QoQ from $339.3mn in 2Q20, and compared to $955.6mn in 3Q19. We revise our forecasts due to slower ride recovery. Lyft’s intention to reach EBITDA profitability and provide profitable growth beyond 2021 might be achievable once the company follows the cost control measures implemented during the pandemic.

21 October 2020

Beluga Group - EGM approves interim dividends

BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) reports the results of the EGM. At the EGM, held on 16 October 2020, BELUGA Group shareholders approved the payment of interim dividends for 1H2020 in the amount of RUB19 per share. The total payment will amount to RUB124.2mn based on an outstanding number of shares of 12,416,947 net of a quasi-treasury stake of 3,383,053 shares. We update our forecasts and EPS projections based on the 9M2020 operating results and new dividend policy.

16 November 2021

Nutrien - 3Q21: record prices and sales, retail and potash in focus

Nutrien reported a record adjusted consolidated EBITDA of $1.6bn in 3Q21, up 145% YoY. The company generated $135mn EBITDA in Phosphates (+193% YoY), $532mn in Nitrogen (+173%), $808mn in Potash (+131%), and $291mn in Retail (+80%) in 3Q21. Strong crop market fundamentals may remain in place in 4Q21-2Q22.

7 July 2021

BELUGA Group - 1H2021 Operating results

BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) announces 1H2021 operating results. The company increased its total sales by 1.3% YoY to 7.266 million 9L cases in the half-year, 16.3% above its 1H2019 sales total. The company said that sales of own brand products were rather flat YoY, while brands in the premium segment posted double-digit growth. The company completed its secondary public offering in June, raising RUB5.6bn.

6 May 2021

Globaltruck - FY2020 results: well set for forwarding  

Globaltruck (MOEX: GTRK) publishes FY2020 audited results. The company reported a 5% YoY increase in revenue to RUB10,031m in FY2020, driven by 49% YoY growth in its forwarding (Expedition) operations to RUB1,500m. The contribution of forwarding to total revenues rose from 10.6% in FY2019 to 15.0% in FY2020. Globaltruck, one of the largest Russian FTL-trucking operators, is developing an IT platform for third-party logistics operators, freight forwarders, and drivers to fulfill customer orders, and launched its “Digital Forwarder” platform in mid-2020.

3 March 2021

Mosaic - company update

The Mosaic Company reports earnings per share of $1.75 and net income of $666.1mn for FY2020. The company’s adjusted EBITDA reached $1.56bn. The strong DAP price move by 36% YoY in 4Q20 helped the company to show 42% YoY net sales growth in phosphates, while potash segment sales growth by 42% YoY was driven by an 86% increase in MOP sales volumes in 4Q20. In the US, the restricted supply of Russian and Moroccan imports contributed to the DAP price increase.

26 января 2021г. (Russian version)

Группа БЕЛУГА - Сильные операционные результаты за 2020г.

Группа БЕЛУГА (MOEX: BELU) опубликовала сильные операционные результаты за 2020 год. Объем продаж компании возрос на 10.7% г/г в 2020г. до 17.37 млн 9-литровых кейсов по сравнению с нашим прогнозом 16.59 млн. Продажи собственных брендов выросли на 6.9% г/г до 14.982млн 9-литровых кейсов, а продажи импортных брендов увеличились на 42.1% г/г до 2.387млн 9-литровых кейсов.

18 December 2020

Globaltruck - A digital transformation to deliver growth

Globaltruck (MOEX: GTRK) updated its strategy to include a focus on digitalisation that will add an asset-light business to its asset-based model. Over the next four years (2020-2024), management expects the new business to help lift overall company revenue growth, as well as improve operating efficiency.

10 November 2020

Uber - 3Q20 results review

Uber reports a QoQ improvement in its Mobility and Delivery businesses in 3Q 2020. The company’s MAPCs increased to 78mn in 3Q20 compared to 55mn in 2Q20 and 103mn in 3Q19. The number of trips increased to 1,150mn in 3Q20 vs 737mn in 2Q20 and 1,770mna year ago. Gross bookings increased by 44% QoQ to $14,745mn, a 10% YoY decline (8% decline in constant currency). We review our forecasts based on 3Q20 results.|  Tel: +44 (0) 78527 00371