HYPOTHESIS RESEARCH is a provider of investment research, sponsored research and analytical services to investment management companies, family offices and sell-side organisations.
Please send us a request if you need help or more information.
13 May 2022
Nutrien 1Q22: global supply uncertainties support strong outlook
Nutrien reports $2.6bn adjusted EBITDA and $1.4bn net earnings in 1Q22 due to a high average realized prices offsetting lower sales volumes. The delayed planting in North America and geopolitical risks affected both volumes and prices.
16 March 2022
Nutrien - Record EBITDA in FY21, higher forecasts for FY22
Nutrien reports $27.7bn sales, up 33% YoY, and a record Adjusted EBITDA of $7.1bn, up 94% YoY in FY21. High nutrient prices resulted in a record EBITDA in the retail segment and record potash sales volumes. We review our forecasts following the recent developments in the energy and agriculture markets.
10 February 2022
LYFT - FY2021 – robust revenue and margin
Lyft reports $969.9mn revenue in 4Q21, up 70% YoY and 12% QoQ. The Contribution reached $578.8mn in 4Q21, up 83% YoY and 13% QoQ. Results are in line with our expectations. The company reported $3,208mn revenue for FY2021 (vs $3,142mn our forecast), up 36% YoY. The management guidance for 1Q22 includes $800-859mn revenue and a 56.5% contribution margin.
16 November 2021
Nutrien - 3Q21: record prices and sales, retail and potash in focus
Nutrien reported a record adjusted consolidated EBITDA of $1.6bn in 3Q21, up 145% YoY. The company generated $135mn EBITDA in Phosphates (+193% YoY), $532mn in Nitrogen (+173%), $808mn in Potash (+131%), and $291mn in Retail (+80%) in 3Q21. Strong crop market fundamentals may remain in place in 4Q21-2Q22.
7 July 2021
BELUGA Group - 1H2021 Operating results
BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) announces 1H2021 operating results. The company increased its total sales by 1.3% YoY to 7.266 million 9L cases in the half-year, 16.3% above its 1H2019 sales total. The company said that sales of own brand products were rather flat YoY, while brands in the premium segment posted double-digit growth. The company completed its secondary public offering in June, raising RUB5.6bn.
15 March 2021
BELUGA Group - Strong EPS growth drives dividend payout
BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) reports strong financial results for FY2020. The company’s revenue after VAT and excise duties grew 23% YoY to RUB63.3bn in АН2020, driven by 11% YoY volume growth and stronger retail operations. Its sales volumes increased by 10.7% YoY in FY2020 to 17.37mn 9L cases. EBITDA increased to RUB9.2bn, up 42% YoY, and net profit increased 82% YoY to RUB2.8bn.
17 February 2021
Uber Technologies - FY2020 results review
Uber reports a gradual 16.3% QoQ improvement in Gross Bookings in 4Q 2020. Uber’s Gross Bookings reached $58bn in FY2020, down 11% YoY. The performance was driven by the Delivery business, which reported an increase in Gross Bookings by 130% YoY to $10bn in 4Q20 and by 109% to $30bn in FY20. The company has 3.5mn drivers and increased the number of merchants on its platform from 450k in 1Q20 to 675k. Membership scaled up to 5mn members with Uber Pass, Eats Pass, and Postmates Unlimited, providing Uber’s businesses a better frequency of usage.
27 April 2022
Termination of coverage
Hypothesis Research is terminating coverage on BELUGA Group and Globaltruck. Please note you cannot rely upon any previous forecasts or research. Any previous estimates and research for these companies are not relevant anymore.
8 March 2022
Mosaic FY21: strong performance despite production cuts
The Mosaic Company reports a record net income of $1.6bn (+145% YoY), EPS of $4.27 per share, and a record Adjusted EBITDA of $3.6bn (+129% YoY) in FY21. The regular annual dividend raised from $0.45 to $0.60 per share starting from 2Q22. The company’s revenue was up 42% YoY to $12.4bn in FY21 on the back of strong prices offsetting lower volumes.
18 January 2022
BELUGA Group - FY2021 Operating results
BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) releases full year 2021 total sales of 17.5mn 9L cases, up 0.6% YoY, in line with our expectations. The sales of own brands in FY2021 went down by 2.6% YoY to 14.6mn 9L cases (vs our forecast of 14.9mn 9L cases). However, this decline was compensated by an increase of import brands sales by 20.7% YoY to 2.9mn 9L cases (we had forecast 2.6mn 9L cases). Export sales increased by 77.3% YoY to 632k 9L cases.
10 November 2021
UBER Technologies - 3Q2021 results coming with a positive EBITDA
Uber reports a positive EBITDA in 3Q21. Uber’s Gross Bookings reached $23.1bn in 3Q21, up 57% YoY and 53% YoY on a constant currency basis. Uber sees a further 33% growth of aggregate gross bookings in October 2021 over October 2019 after the reopening in New York, London, Paris, and Sydney. Mobility Gross bookings were $9.9bn in 3Q (+67% YoY), Delivery bookings $12.8bn (+50%), and Freight bookings grew to $0.4bn, up 39% YoY.
25 May 2021
BELUGA Group - New growth strategy, focus on Retail
BELUGA Group announces its strategy for 2021-24. Following a strong operating performance in 2020, the Group set strategically important business development elements in order to double its revenue by 2024. Better-than-market performance by the Group demonstrated the importance of having its own distribution, including within the Retail operations. The changing preference of customers in favour of brown spirits and wine over the traditional choice of vodka supported the performance of BELUGA’s well-diversified portfolio, while online purchases during the lockdown contributed to the Group’s Retail margin and revenue growth.
3 March 2021
Mosaic - company update
The Mosaic Company reports earnings per share of $1.75 and net income of $666.1mn for FY2020. The company’s adjusted EBITDA reached $1.56bn. The strong DAP price move by 36% YoY in 4Q20 helped the company to show 42% YoY net sales growth in phosphates, while potash segment sales growth by 42% YoY was driven by an 86% increase in MOP sales volumes in 4Q20. In the US, the restricted supply of Russian and Moroccan imports contributed to the DAP price increase.
26 January 2021
BELUGA Group - Strong FY2020 operating results amidst pandemic
BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) reports strong operating results for FY2020. The company’s sales volumes increased by 10.7% YoY in FY2020 to 17.37mn 9L cases compared to our forecast of 16.59mn. The own product sales grew by 6.9% YoY to 14.982mn 9L cases and sales of imported brands increased by 42.1% YoY to 2.387mn 9L cases. Sales of both own and imported brands exceeded our estimates.
25 April 2022
Udemy - Investing in upskilling
We initiate coverage of Udemy, one of the leading global online learning platforms. Udemy provides a marketplace for content creators, learners, and corporates helping users to get access to affordable content from expert instructors. The platform has over 49mn registered users and reports 1.345mn monthly average buyers in the Consumer segment. The number of Enterprise users reached 10,500 in 2021.
23 February 2022
UBER: FY2021 results & mid-term targets
Uber reports robust financial results with revenue up 83% YoY to $5,778mn on the back of 51% Gross Bookings (GB) growth to $25,866mn in 4Q21. The number of Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) increased by 27% YoY to 118mn in 4Q21, while trips soared 23% YoY to 1.77bn. The Uber platform currently onboards 4.4mn earners and 825k merchants. Mobility GB were $11.3bn, up 67% YoY in constant currency, with take rate of 20.1% in 4Q21.
23 November 2021
Lyft - 3Q21: record driver activation and margin
Lyft reports $864mn revenue in 3Q21, up 73% YoY and a record contribution margin of 59.4%. The number of active drivers increased by 11% QoQ and 51% YoY to 18.9mn. The Revenue per active rider also improved from $39.9 in 3Q20 to $45.6 in 3Q21. Lyft adjusted EBITDA was $67.3mn in 3Q21 compared to $23.8mn in 2Q21 and an adj EBITDA loss of $239.7mn a year ago. We update our forecasts and price target.
5 November 2021
Mosaic - 3Q21: strong performance despite production cuts
The Mosaic Company reports a 44% YoY and 22% QoQ net revenue increase and $372mn net earnings for 3Q21 compared to a net loss of $6mn in 3Q20 and net profit of $437mn in 2Q21. The company’s adjusted EBITDA reached $969mn in 3Q21, up 121% YoY and 17% QoQ. The strongest in a decade fertiliser price growth helped the company to achieve a strong performance during a quarter despite production cuts and extra repair costs.
6 May 2021
Globaltruck - FY2020 results: well set for forwarding
Globaltruck (MOEX: GTRK) publishes FY2020 audited results. The company reported a 5% YoY increase in revenue to RUB10,031m in FY2020, driven by 49% YoY growth in its forwarding (Expedition) operations to RUB1,500m. The contribution of forwarding to total revenues rose from 10.6% in FY2019 to 15.0% in FY2020. Globaltruck, one of the largest Russian FTL-trucking operators, is developing an IT platform for third-party logistics operators, freight forwarders, and drivers to fulfill customer orders, and launched its “Digital Forwarder” platform in mid-2020.
25 February 2021
Lyft - FY2020 results review
Lyft reports $570mn revenue, a $70m QoQ improvement in 4Q20. Lyft’s adjusted EBITDA loss was $150m in 4Q20 compared to $240m loss in 3Q20 and $131m loss in 4Q19. The number of active riders reached 12.6mn in 4Q20 compared to 12.5mn in 3Q20, below our expectations of 13.3mn. However, the revenue per active rider improved from $39.9 in 3Q20 to $45.4 in 4Q20. The contribution margin was 55.5% in 4Q compared to 49.8% in 3Q20. The company reduced driver acquisition and engagement spend.
18 December 2020
Globaltruck - A digital transformation to deliver growth
Globaltruck (MOEX: GTRK) updated its strategy to include a focus on digitalisation that will add an asset-light business to its asset-based model. Over the next four years (2020-2024), management expects the new business to help lift overall company revenue growth, as well as improve operating efficiency.