INDEPENDENT INVESTMENT RESEARCH

HYPOTHESIS RESEARCH is a provider of investment research, sponsored research and analytical services to investment management companies, family offices and sell-side organisations.

Please send us a request if you need help or more information.

REPORTS

15 March 2021

BELUGA Group - Strong EPS growth drives dividend payout

BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) reports strong financial results for FY2020. The company’s revenue after VAT and excise duties grew 23% YoY to RUB63.3bn in АН2020, driven by 11% YoY volume growth and stronger retail operations. Its sales volumes increased by 10.7% YoY in FY2020 to 17.37mn 9L cases. EBITDA increased to RUB9.2bn, up 42% YoY, and net profit increased 82% YoY to RUB2.8bn.

17 February 2021

Uber Technologies - FY2020 results review

Uber reports a gradual 16.3% QoQ improvement in Gross Bookings in 4Q 2020. Uber’s Gross Bookings reached $58bn in FY2020, down 11% YoY. The performance was driven by the Delivery business, which reported an increase in Gross Bookings by 130% YoY to $10bn in 4Q20 and by 109% to $30bn in FY20. The company has 3.5mn drivers and increased the number of merchants on its platform from 450k in 1Q20 to 675k. Membership scaled up to 5mn members with Uber Pass, Eats Pass, and Postmates Unlimited, providing Uber’s businesses a better frequency of usage.

18 декабря 2020 (Russian version)

Глобалтрак - Цифровая трансформация для роста

Глобалтрак (MOEX: GTRK) обновил стратегию, усилив фокус на цифровизации и росте доли экспедиционного бизнеса в выручке. Компания объявила о создании комитета по стратегии цифровизации бизнеса и учреждении компании «ГТ ИТ» – разработчика электронной платформы для развития приложений и операций клиентов, экспедиторов, водителей и партнеров.

13 November 2020

Lyft - 3Q20 results review

Lyft releases 3Q20 financial results reflecting quarterly improvement in the number of riders and revenue. Lyft reported revenue of $499.7mn, up 47% QoQ from $339.3mn in 2Q20, and compared to $955.6mn in 3Q19. We revise our forecasts due to slower ride recovery. Lyft’s intention to reach EBITDA profitability and provide profitable growth beyond 2021 might be achievable once the company follows the cost control measures implemented during the pandemic.

21 October 2020

Beluga Group - EGM approves interim dividends

BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) reports the results of the EGM. At the EGM, held on 16 October 2020, BELUGA Group shareholders approved the payment of interim dividends for 1H2020 in the amount of RUB19 per share. The total payment will amount to RUB124.2mn based on an outstanding number of shares of 12,416,947 net of a quasi-treasury stake of 3,383,053 shares. We update our forecasts and EPS projections based on the 9M2020 operating results and new dividend policy.

3 March 2021

Mosaic - company update

The Mosaic Company reports earnings per share of $1.75 and net income of $666.1mn for FY2020. The company’s adjusted EBITDA reached $1.56bn. The strong DAP price move by 36% YoY in 4Q20 helped the company to show 42% YoY net sales growth in phosphates, while potash segment sales growth by 42% YoY was driven by an 86% increase in MOP sales volumes in 4Q20. In the US, the restricted supply of Russian and Moroccan imports contributed to the DAP price increase.

26 января 2021г. (Russian version)

Группа БЕЛУГА - Сильные операционные результаты за 2020г.

Группа БЕЛУГА (MOEX: BELU) опубликовала сильные операционные результаты за 2020 год. Объем продаж компании возрос на 10.7% г/г в 2020г. до 17.37 млн 9-литровых кейсов по сравнению с нашим прогнозом 16.59 млн. Продажи собственных брендов выросли на 6.9% г/г до 14.982млн 9-литровых кейсов, а продажи импортных брендов увеличились на 42.1% г/г до 2.387млн 9-литровых кейсов.

18 December 2020

Globaltruck - A digital transformation to deliver growth

Globaltruck (MOEX: GTRK) updated its strategy to include a focus on digitalisation that will add an asset-light business to its asset-based model. Over the next four years (2020-2024), management expects the new business to help lift overall company revenue growth, as well as improve operating efficiency.

10 November 2020

Uber - 3Q20 results review

Uber reports a QoQ improvement in its Mobility and Delivery businesses in 3Q 2020. The company’s MAPCs increased to 78mn in 3Q20 compared to 55mn in 2Q20 and 103mn in 3Q19. The number of trips increased to 1,150mn in 3Q20 vs 737mn in 2Q20 and 1,770mna year ago. Gross bookings increased by 44% QoQ to $14,745mn, a 10% YoY decline (8% decline in constant currency). We review our forecasts based on 3Q20 results.

25 February 2021

Lyft - FY2020 results review

Lyft reports $570mn revenue, a $70m QoQ improvement in 4Q20. Lyft’s adjusted EBITDA loss was $150m in 4Q20 compared to $240m loss in 3Q20 and $131m loss in 4Q19. The number of active riders reached 12.6mn in 4Q20 compared to 12.5mn in 3Q20, below our expectations of 13.3mn. However, the revenue per active rider improved from $39.9 in 3Q20 to $45.4 in 4Q20. The contribution margin was 55.5% in 4Q compared to 49.8% in 3Q20. The company reduced driver acquisition and engagement spend.

26 January 2021

BELUGA Group - Strong FY2020 operating results amidst pandemic

BELUGA Group (MOEX: BELU) reports strong operating results for FY2020. The company’s sales volumes increased by 10.7% YoY in FY2020 to 17.37mn 9L cases compared to our forecast of 16.59mn. The own product sales grew by 6.9% YoY to 14.982mn 9L cases and sales of imported brands increased by 42.1% YoY to 2.387mn 9L cases. Sales of both own and imported brands exceeded our estimates.

2 December 2020

Nutrien - company update

Nutrien reported phosphate segment EBITDA loss in 3Q20 but market prospects are brighter for 4Q20. The company reported a 7% YoY decline in phosphate sales to $292mn and EBITDA loss of $723mn due to $823mn non-cash impairments associated with phosphate assets in 3Q20. We review our valuation and forecasts for the company based on 3Q20 financials.

6 November 2020

Moscow Exchange - 3Q20 results review

Moscow Exchange (MOEX) reports a strong fee income for 9M20. The company’s fee and commission (F&C) income grew 30% YoY to RUB8,321mn in 3Q20. The operating income was up 6% YoY despite declining Net Interest Income (NII) following interest rates cut. Net profit increased by 2.7% YoY to RUB5,598.6mn in 3Q20. F&C reached RUB24,221.7mn in 9M20, up 27% YoY while Interest and other finance income were up 9% YoY to RUB11,398.8mn in 9M20. We update our model based on 3Q20 figures.

research@hypothesisresearch.co.uk|  Tel: +44 (0) 78527 00371

© Copyright 2021 all rights reserved Hypothesis Research Ltd. Registered in England and Wales. Registered Number: 09949356. Registered Address: Kemp House, 152-160 City Road, London, United Kingdom, EC1V 2NX. Hypothesis Research Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.